Tory policy to see 1 million UK children homeless by July? Yes!

Over one million children in the UK will be homeless by July 2015 – TEN TIMES the current offensive figure!

If we are really, really, really, really, really, lucky it may only see an additional 100,000 British children made homeless by the summer which more than doubles the current figure!

homeless UK

Welcome to IDS’s Britain!

Sounds incredulous. Have I finally lost it?  Have I become a scriptwriter for Nigel Farage with hugely dubious assertions?  No! The opening statement is the obvious consequence of the overall benefit cap policy of the Conservative Party.  What’s more it is very simple to explain.

  • There are 1.6 million households on housing benefit in the private rented sector.
  • 23% of these households or 365,684 have 3 or more children (over a million children)
  • The Tories benefit cap policy means these households will get between £ZERO and £456 per month towards their 3 or 4 bed rent in housing benefit.
  • The average 3 bed private rent is £671 per month at official figures at December 2014 meaning the private landlord will have no option but to evict and make homeless these families due to this minimum £215 pcm / £2580 pa shortfall
  • That means at least 1.1 million children will be made homeless (and 500,000 adults too) within 3 months if the Tories remain in power and reduce the cap from £500 per week to £440 per week in London and £396 per week in the rest of the country.

Stated policy of the Tories is to reduce the cap to £23k per year immediately after the election , circa £440 pw in London and have a lower regional cap.  The £396 per week figure is 10% less than the London figure.

The same policy may also see over 165,000 households (250,000 adults and at least 500,000 children) evicted and made homeless by social landlords, though this will take a lot longer to happen, perhaps a year, as social landlords cannot evict tenants at will at without any reason as the private landlord can.

These unbelievably horrific homeless figures could even be a huge underestimate as 54% of all benefit claimants according to official DWP figures have 2 children or more.

The 2 child household will also be evicted by private landlords as benefit for rent is not enough to cover that rent and the two child benefit household is a financial risk too far for the private landlord to house.  That would be 800,000 households – or 1.2 million adults and 2 million children in total made homeless just by private landlords out of financial necessity by the Tory benefit cap!

[As a comparator there were 90,000 homeless children in the UK at Christmas 2014]

The full details of the above I have discussed here, here, here and here and also here and this is not wild speculation at all.  It is THE most horrendous example of back of a fag packet policy making by the Tory coalition and is much worse than the bedroom tax or other benefit caps which do not save a penny.  In fact the housing benefit cuts and caps INCREASE the welfare benefit spend as the official figure show.  Yet this is a concept so seemingly bizarre that it is reported 78% of the public support and approve the benefit cap policy!

Reducing the cap as in the Tory stated policy will make the £12,768 per month housing benefit bill for 1 family evicted and made homeless by housing benefit caps as in this 175 second video by BBC London that shows WHY the benefit caps do cost the public public and the individual taxpayer millions per year. Yes that’s right £153,000 per year to house one homeless family is the result of the Tory benefit caps and that is just 1 of 700 similar cases in just one London borough, Westminster as the BBC video reveals.

The first benefit caps saw private landlords in London alone have to evict families with 4 or more children back in 2012.  Now the Tory benefit cap policy which they will introduce in just over 4 weeks time if remaining in office will see private landlords all across the UK evicting families with 2 or more children and social landlords being forced to evict all families with 3 or more children as the housing benefit nowhere nears covers the rent and makes eviction and homelessness a financial necessity for landlords.

If you want to see a million UK homeless children by the summer and if you want to see every town and city in the UK having British children begging like some impoverished third world country we see on our TV screens then vote Tory and keep believing the benefit cap saves money.

Further comment

Surely these figures cant be valid?  Surely at least one major or minor political party would have seen this by now and said something?  Joe you must be way off the mark here!!  No, no and no!

The figures are valid and are explained.  Every political party sees the electorates 78% approval rating for the overall benefit cap and says (a) we can’t come out against it because of that , and (b) assumes the policy does save money and not hold the unbelievably outrageous impacts I state above…which have been explained.  The electorate has been force fed the IDS lie – and he knows full well it is a lie -that the benefit cap saves money and that seems so full of (superficial) logical as surely a cap MUST save money!  Yet all it does is create huge additional housing benefit costs elsewhere as in homelessness and briefly explained above.

If any think tank, analyst, economist or party political activist or MP wishes to challenge these figures above, bring it on!

Note well if I have over-egged the figures by ten-fold it means there will be an additional 100,000 homeless UK children by the summer and that is more than DOUBLE the existing figure and all down, directly, to this offensive Tory overall benefit cap policy.

No political party has come out against this overall benefit cap and even the likes of Shelter, Crisis and all the other homelessness lobbies have not mentioned this at all either! Why?

There are 3.34 million working age claimants of housing benefit (HB and LHA) and the DWP FOI response of 2012 says 23% of all benefit claimants have at least 3 children and the overall benefit cap means the benefit family with 3 or more children cannot afford even the cheapest council 3 bed property.

Of these 3.34 million housing benefit working-age families with 3 or more children it needs less than 1 per cent of them to be evicted, just 33,000 households, for there to be an additional 100,000 UK homeless children.  10% is 1 million and 23% is well over two million children evicted and homeless.

It appears that 78% of the electorate who support the overall benefit cap do not realise that if we are extremely lucky there will be just 100,000 extra UK children made homeless by this ‘beloved’ policy!!  The UK will be lucky if it is just 1 million additional homeless children by the summer costing the taxpayer at least £5 billion per year MORE in housing benefit

Somebody please explain to me why the above figures are wrong as I don’t want to believe them myself!


There is no doubt that the private landlord will exit the housing benefit market as they have no choice but to seek less risky tenants given the financial imperative of the benefit cap and this will happen even in the lowest rent areas.

The impact on LA homeless budgets and costs will be measured in the billions per year with the assessments and especially with the provision of high cost temporary B&B and hotel provision.  That high cost accommodation will also last far longer too as the families made homeless will not be rehoused in social housing as they will also face the benefit cap there.

That means the family on out of work benefits, however that came about, are stuffed as no job, however temporarily, means eviction.  The benefit cap does apply to those claiming income support and ESA if in the working group so it applies to those sick and disabled as well as those temporarily unemployed.

Note too that the cap figure will remain constant in all likelihood over the parliament so with benefit inflation and rent inflation each year the gap between what is received in housing benefits and the rent level will increase each year meaning more and more will be evicted every year from social housing.

There will be an increase in empty properties while private landlords adjust their target tenants, yes that means many empty RTB properties causing community blight and reverse regeneration of many current and ex-council estates.

Stop and think for 5 minutes what the mass exit of the private landlord from the housing benefit market means, and this mass exit from the benefit tenant is inevitable, and the impacts and additional costs to the taxpayer are enormous.  The impact in human terms is enormous and Mrs Jones the new lone parent with 3 children after Mr Jones buggered off with his ‘fancy piece’ means the Jones family is evicted and the Jones children education and life chances are well and truly buggered.  The same Jones family will be evicted if Mr Jones has a heart attack or stroke at work and is resting up at home for a few months and intending to go back to work as he is the sole wage earner and has always paid his way or even if Mr Jones has been run over by a bus.

The overall benefit cap policy is the most ill-conceived social policy ever and of course it being this Tory policy the reduction which is de facto policy does not have any impact assessment done ahead of this de facto decision being taken.  It is the shameful politics of a Tory party hell bent on persecuting anyone on welfare benefit as the enemy who need to be taught a lesson.  The benefit recipient is the new enemy within and this Tory party don’t give a monkey’s that teaching then that lesson will cost the taxpayer at least £5 billion more per year if not over £10 billion or more per year – and make no mistake this policy will cost billions more per year which means every taxpayer will have to pay MORE in tax to pay for what the incompetent buffoon and zealot IDS “believes to be right!”



8 thoughts on “Tory policy to see 1 million UK children homeless by July? Yes!

  1. These figures ARE TRULLY TERRIFING!!
    WHAT is the reason, why the other parties are not looking at these figures??
    It makes NO sense at all!!

    Even, Labour have said they will keep the Benefit cap……..

    Will it be in the same format Joe??
    I’m trying to find their policy on this??

    1. Yes the policy is an outrage. The fact that Labour (and every other party) have no anti benefit cap policy is because (a) they don’t know the impacts and (b) the general public give the benefit cap a 78% approval rating. That last point means ALL political parties have policy dictated by vox populi and not by principle or fact and the bedroom tax abolition intent of Labour is just opportunism as the benefit cap is ten times worse than the bedroom tax.

      1. The best we can hope for is that Labour win the election, and as soon as the social and cost implications for this are understood it will be reversed.

        The alternatives are too horrifying to conceive. A timely piece, as always highlighting the sheer lunacy of IDS and Osborne’s policies.

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