Today Inside Housing had an article which saw three Northern landlords give their own estimates of how the reduced overall benefit cap will affect them.
When we extrapolate this it sees just in social housing alone, the reduced benefit cap affecting 144,000 households.
If we use the initial DWP projections of 46% of all benefit capped households being in social housing then that means a further 169,000 private rented sector households will be hit making this 313,000 households in total.
Note well these are not my figures but independently derived figures from 3 social landlords so let’s look at the relevant part of the Inside Housing article.
At first I was puzzled at the variance of these 3 social landlords figures showing a 367% increase by New Charter and the 1000% increase for SYHA and the surely way off increase of 2500% by Coast and Country.
YET when we put the estimated figures as a percentage of all stock these three social landlords manage we see New Charter estimate 4.1% of their stock will be affected (c. 13500); 3.6% of Coast and Country (c.10000) and 3.1% of SYHA’s 3600 stock.
They are broadly in line and give an average of 3.6% of all housing stock they manage.
There are 4 million social housing properties and 3.6% of that is 144,000 properties and so these three Northern social landlords who all operate in low rent areas and have little if any AR units to skew the figures give cause to suggest that 3.6% or 144,000 SRS households may be affected by the reduced benefit cap.
The percentage of social housing properties of all benefit capped households has always been 46% and 54% in the private rented sector which is where the 169,000 households in the PRS to be affected comes from to make an overall affected number of 313,000 households each of whom will include at least 3 children giving a million children being affected.
A few weeks ago the National Housing Federation said it would be 90,000 additional households affected with 40,000 being in social housing and a figure of 37,000 from memory also appeared in Inside Housing. The same figures were quoted in the Guardian recently and came from the National Housing Federation too and interestingly the Inside Housing article today says that the NHF is now consulting with its members.
Yes the same NHF who said the benefit cap would only affect 40,000 or about 1% of social housing stock yet 3 of its members above who all one assumes did their own internal considerations independently of one another average out at 3.6%.
All housing associations who believed the NHF figure and I quoted that figure in my many rants at the NHF now will be thinking oh dear, perhaps the real figures is 3.6 times higher and gives us all 3.6 times or 360% of the arrears and operational difficulties such as the PR aspect of evicting children to the OMG this AR model is as toxic as hell all need to rethink
As I said earlier today I only ever asked you THINK about the benefit cap housing people. Not a lot really, do you think you may be able to try that now? You know the quicker you get your heads out of your backsides and open your minds the quicker I can drop this tone which is annoying the hell out of me never mind you!
After all this is only your CORE business model that is affected here by the reduction in the overall HOUSING BENEFIT cap policy but hey if you want to go ahead and develop more and more new units while your core implodes ….