The benefit cap and why 750,000 children homeless is reality NOT scaremongering

The reduced benefit cap at £23,000 in London and £20,000 elsewhere will see 9 times more households affected than as at today’s average 25,774 number with a £26,000 cap.

I have kept this post deliberately short and simple so that even the most incompetent, the most ignorant and even the most spineless Labour MP can see this policy is truly offensive and has horrific consequences

The Table below reveals 418,493 households of working age, defined as less than 65 with at least 3 children, and if we define working age at those under 60 there are 416,696 households who will be hit by the benefit cap unless they are exempt by receipt of working tax credit or DLA/PIP or the other welfare benefits which exempt.


I have been conducting extremely complex number-crunching using official datasets overlaid on each other and my best estimate is 245,000 households containing 805,000 children will be made homeless between April 2016 and March 2017.

Note well the figures above are official ones and for working-age HB households and the exempt pensioner households have already been taken out.

Very crudely all families with 3 or more children will be affected yet it is not only those as even in low rent areas in the North such as Merseyside the couple with 2 children living in private rented 3 bed properties will be affected by the reduced cap and in high private rent areas some families with 1 child will be affected.

London will see the single person living in a 1 bed private rented property affected and evicted if not in work or if they lose a job and in some higher cost rent areas some couples with 2 children will be affected in social housing too.  Then there is the affordable rent model tenancies in social housing which will see even smaller households affected.

This post is deliberately short as it seeks primarily to show that three-quarters of a million children made homeless is a very distinct probability and not scaremongering.


I have pointed out many times that the benefit cap costs more than it saves as indeed the IFS also did and ranted and raved against the man principally responsible for scrutinising this policy, Frank Field who is the elected chair of the Work and Pensions committee and who has said he is really happy with the benefit cap which he did on the BBC Daily Politics show last week.

I know with absolutely certainty that Frank Field is wrong and that when his local council Wirral will have over 5000 homeless children as a direct result of the reduced benefit cap policy that he is really happy with then that is too late and the damage is done, irreparable damage too.

We need to move away from this apparent notion that 750,000+ children being made homeless is some form of scaremongering and hyperbole and is just said for political effect or any other reason other than reality which is what it is.

Wake the f*ck up people!


Would you credit it!!  Just after I publish the above the DWP releases their alleged impact assessment which says it is just 300,000 children in 126k total families and picked up as usual by the journalise who should know better


And as usual once the Guardian prints this sh*te then everyone believes it and assumes the Guardian must think these figures are valid!  Do wake the f*ck up people! We all know the minimum average number of children will be 3 per household and statistically it will be 3.29 so if the DWP estimate of 126,000 families then that would be at least 414,000 children.  And I note the Guardian in the second tweet think the benefit cap reduction starts in 2017/18 when it is the year before!!

Shoddy journalism and the rush to get something out first I can take and understand, yet merely publishing DWP propaganda is another thing altogether and the same Guardian published a report a few weeks back to say 40,000 more children would be placed in poverty as a result of the benefit cap when they found a highly convenient ‘leak’ by civil servants over the benefit cap.

Even if we accept the ridiculous DWP 33ok children then everyone of them will be in poverty by any definition as they will be in families whose subsistence level benefits have been reduced so it is 8 times higher at least!

How about looking at the CAB figures produced before the emergency budget

The CAB in a report a week or so ago said:-

  • An estimated 150,000 adults and 395,000 children will be affected by the £23,000 cap, including those who are already capped at £26,000.

That was based on the £23,000 per year cap applying across the country yet the budget only applied the £23,000 cap to 13% of the country – ie London – and a lower £20,000 per year cap to the other 87% of the UK so the figures are much much higher than the CAB estimate.

So the DWP are trying to say the numbers affected will be far less than the CAB estimated and on a much lower cap limit too!

My original table above using DWP’s own official figures show that 418,000 working age families as a minimum will be hit by the benefit cap and so the pensioner households have already been exempted.  The DWP is trying to say that 126k families only will be affected containing 330k children and that is cloud cuckoo land stuff as the real figure will be 500,000 MORE children affected by the reduction that the DWP say.

One final point on the DWP alleged figures of 126k households affected each having a £63 per week reduction.

£63 per week is £3,276 per year thus making the DWP ‘saving’ £3,276 for 126,000 families or £413 million in the first year.  So why does the official budget table say the cap reduction will only save £100 million?

Oh it appears that the DWP and the Treasury and the OBR who allegedly have ‘audited’ these figures don’t have a bloody clue what is going on and don’t have a bloody clue how many this will affect!!


As I have commented before the one person charged with scrutinising the DWP welfare policies is the newly elected Chair of The Work & Pensions committee in Frank Field and he is really happy with the cap reduction and so this policy is NOT going to get any scrutiny from the spineless incompetent MPs and it will see a minimum 750,000 children evicted and made homeless which will start in January 2016 as private landlords issue Sector 21 notices like confetti and their financially toxic households will be evicted before the reduced cap begins in April 2016.

Yet by then this is all too late and today we see the real spineless incompetent fuckwits in the Labour Party who are going to abstain and not vote against the welfare bill because they are more concerned with how they individual move up the greasy pole in the Labour Party than three quarters of a million children made homeless.

Apparently 48 Labour MPs defied and voted against the Welfare Bill which means that 188 or so did not vote against it and they quite simply do not give a shit about 750,000 CHILDREN being made homeless.

Taxi for Burnham as well as a taxi for 80% of all Labour MPs

burnham evertonian comic


Having moved up the Labour Party greasy pole by appearing so concerned over Hillsborough and JFT96 to then have a photoshoot for this Murdoch rag just shows what a two-faced hypocritical totally out of touch gobshite you are as is the party you will soon be leading.

Once a blue always a blue !


17 thoughts on “The benefit cap and why 750,000 children homeless is reality NOT scaremongering

  1. This is shocking, any society that tolerates this treatment of the most vulnerable citizens, should hang their head in shame. Once disadvantaged in childhood, made homeless and put into poverty, the chances of any future career are minimal and a cycle of deprivation will follow.

  2. I simply can’t believe that 80% of Labour MPs could vote for this, it is totally disgraceful. The 80% are clueless and ignorant: the absolute sh*t that three of the leadership candidates have been coming out with this week shows that they are not familiar with any of the details of how benefits actually work, or, as you make clear, what the actual numbers of children affected will be.

  3. Was the calculation based on what the rates of tax credits are now, or on what the rates of tax credits will be after April 2016?
    This is quite important as even without the benefit cap there would be in most cases over £1400 difference between the total benefit package now, and the total benefit package after April 2016.
    Either way I think you need to show your working as it doesn’t look right to me.

    1. the benefit cap will be 384 pounds per week outside of london. it includes rent. it takes no account of how many children are in the family. the more children, the less money for the family to live on. the dearer the rent, the less money for the family to live on. it hits in full for families on full benefit. if the parent or parents work and claim some benefits they will also be hit by the other cuts and caps, as you said with tax credits being taken from lower levels of earning. the tories have sold the idea that a family on benefits, no matter how many children living in it, should never get more than a single person on the lowest wages. they are treating children as an irrelevance. as if it does not matter if parents cannot afford to bring up the children. this is the tories coming for the children now. 100s of 1000s of families will be evicted. councils will be overwhelmed. they will either open workhouses or take vast numbers of children into so called care.

  4. Are you sure about that Joe.

    From the budget speech:
    “So from next year, we will reduce the level of earnings at which a household’s Tax Credits and Universal Credit start to be withdrawn.

    The income threshold in tax credits will be reduced, from £6,420 to £3,850.

    Universal Credit work allowances will be similarly reduced – and will no longer be awarded to non-disabled claimants without children.

    The rate at which a household’s Tax Credit award is reduced as they earn more will be increased, by raising the taper rate to 48%.”

    That reads as the tax credits changes being effective from April 2016 to me. A workless but able-bodied working age family on say 20.5k of benefits now might not be affected by the benefit cap as from April 2016 if the changes mean less than 20k of benefits anyway. They are still affected massively by the budget changes of course, it’s just that they will come in under the benefit cap.

      1. This is the red book I’ve looked at

        Click to access 50325_Summer_Budget_15_Web_Accessible.pdf

        The changes to taper rates and start points are from April 2016.
        It’s interesting to me that for the first time in over 13 years raising children on welfare will no longer be the default position ( it’s estimated that by 2016 there will be a 50:50 ratio of parenting taking place on some welfare and parenting taking place without it – welfare defined as a means tested benefit excluding child benefit ).

  5. Apologies Joe, scrub all my comments. This is about CTC only claims for tax credits, and the taper point for these types of claims appears to remain unchanged from April 2016, so you’re right on that. So the non-working IS or IbJSA parents with no disabled family members will continue to get a similar amount of child tax credits.

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