DWP release new Benefit Cap figures today – 22% less affected (FFS!!!)

The DWP has released new benefit cap affected estimates today which beggar belief.  Not only have they said households affected will be 88,000 which is 27% lower than their risible May 2016 scan figure of 120,000, the DWP maintain the average amount of HB cut by the cap falling by £115.38 per week will be £49 per week when now it is £57 per week.

Note that in February 2016 the DWP estimated between 94,000 and 176,000 would be affected so this new estimate is a full 50% lower than it was in February 2016.

Note too that when I discussed the risible DWP scan actual figures they gave to Leeds Council here just 3 weeks ago of 1,409 households affected now become just 1,100 and a reduction of 22%!

Also note the impact assessment released today of which these figures are part is based on the HB actual figures at November 2015 and some 6 months earlier than the actual scan figure they took in May 2016!

What planet are you on DWP and especially Lord Freud who has signed off this heap of bovine faeces?

I do love the choice of wording the DWP use in rationalising the average HB cut  – which will be at least £76 per household by the way – as they say on page 2 and I quote:

“For many people who will be affected by the cap these reductions are notional changes in entitlement rather than actual cash losses i.e. those who become capped once the policy is in place haven’t seen any reductions in benefit, just a lower maximum limit on the benefit they would, otherwise, have been entitled to.”

I can just see tenants now saying the same to their landlords when they seek possession for arrears can’t you? Oh and to the judge too at possession hearings!

I will no doubt be reporting on this in much more detail over the next few days as there are 18 pages of pure unadulterated bullshit that the above quote epitomises as well as 9 pages of tables with these new (ahem) estimates for every local authority which you can access here

freud as hans christain anderson

One quick point that struck me was the claimed savings of £155 million in the next full financial year of 2017/18.

  • £155 million per year is £2.9726 million per week (using 365/7)
  • £2.9726 million per week for the 88,000 total affected is an average weekly cut of £33.78 per household per week.  If it is 107,000 households affected which DWP also say then the weekly HB cut is £27.78 per household!
  • Yet the DWP say it will be £49 per week? Eh!! 



10 thoughts on “DWP release new Benefit Cap figures today – 22% less affected (FFS!!!)

  1. As has been pointed out before, the DWP figures are not “estimated”. They are based on a full 100% scan of all hb records from every local authority. The dwp WANT to warn families that they are affected so that they are pushed into taking any crappy job to avoid being capped. So it’s not in their interest to undercount the number and fail to warn people. As you mentioned earlier in the post that you had to withdraw due to inaccuracies, this isn’t really about saving money…it’s a nudge (actually a bloody big shove) to employment and it works in their eyes. That’s why the numbers have dropped since the last scan and why the number of working people on hb is rocketing upwards instead. That also explains why the net saving on the policy gives a lower per head impact than the average loss per tenant from the DWP itself. 

    Sent from my Samsung device

    1. Gary – these are not the scan figures from May, these are figures released TODAY by the DWP in its impact assessment and signed off by Lord Freud on 25 August 2016.

      So I am NOT wrong on this as you claim and the figures are wrong and chronically underestimated.

      If you care to read the impact assessment the figures used are from November 2015 in fact.

      I take you point as to huge shove yet your cannot correlate those in work and receiving HB and benefit cap as the in work HB recipients rose sharply BEFORE the benefit cap went national in Oct 2013.

      May 2010 in work HB 650k which increased 58% to 1.028m by Oct 13 when benefit cap began.

      Figures now are 1.074m and so have risen just 4.5% since benefit cap began

      All figures as to in-work HB claimants from latest official HB data at Table 6

      So these IA figures from Nov 15 data yet only published today were same figures used for Feb DWP estimate which had figure of up to 177,000 or double the DWP Feb estimate yet using the same dataset!!

      Also the IA says 88,000 households with 244,000 children – so 2.77 children per household???!!! That is a statistical nonsense and especially so given how the OBC works

      Yes I did withdraw earlier piece as the DWP has said those on HB wont be affected (although this is not in legislation anywhere) and thank you for that point although your point also had threshold of pay MORE to stay at £30 when it is £31k – so inaccuracies happen to the best of us – but none more so than to this heap of sh*t from the DWP

  2. Oh and the DWP also confirm that the current 44% London to 56% in the regions will move to 22% in London and so 78% of affected will be in the regions (My figures were between 17% and 23%)

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