GE Voting the facts and Corbyn is the bookies favourite as the next PM!

It was the young that all voted for Corbyn wasn’t it?  Or was it all the old codgers who allowed Theresa May to remain in office with the help of some religious terrorists?

How dare I disparage older people?  Yet it is somehow okay to blame ‘young people’ and infer they are all naive and have the idealism of youth?   And rest assured the usual suspects of the Tory Party, the right-wing media and all the political commentators who got the result so so wrong ARE blaming ‘young people’ for THEIR failure and incompetence!!

Now that I have that off my chest – and by the way I’m in my early 50’s – let’s have a look at who voted by age and a few other descriptors according to the Lord Ashcroft data which holds many surprises.

Voting by Age

 

 

The figures are all percentages of each age group and only record a CON or a LAB vote and hence do not add up to 100.  We see that between them the two main parties got between 79% and 85% of all votes by age group thus 15% – 21% voted for other parties such as Lib Dem, SNP etc.

Just as many older people voted Conservative as younger people voted Labour an both points have to be made.  The young voted Labour and the Old voted Tory yet the really interesting age group is the 35 – 44 year old’s who are likely to have mortgages and in their peak earning year and they voted 50% Labour and 30% Conservative.  Five in every eight of this age cohort voted Labour and that is significant and much more so when additionally the 45 – 54 age group were neck and neck at 40% to 39%.

These middle-aged (to turn a phrase) represent Middle England in political jargon and together they overwhelmingly voted Labour not Tory and did so for the ‘unelectable’ Corbyn.  To therefore reduce the general election vote to the naivety of the young, the irresponsibility of youth as inferred is patently FALSE.

In addition there is a much more significant voting pattern by gender than by age group

Vote by Gender

Why did far more men find May’s policies / leadership / personal integrity / whatever far more attractive than Corbyn’s? AND Why did far more women find Corbyn’s policies / leadership / personal integrity / whatever more attractive than May’s?

Corbyn’s policies / leadership / personal integrity / whatever is far less appealing to males in these voting outcomes than he is to females and this is significant as 45:55 is very much different then 51:49 – and a real concern for Corbyn and for the Labour Party.  Why is Theresa May far more appealing to males?

Given by all quarters (and rightly) that May run perhaps the worst election campaign in living memory, and perhaps by any potential Prime Minister and definitely by any incumbent Prime Minister this is a major worry for the Labour Party I suggest.

If we (admittedly simplistically) say that Corbyn easily came across as more personable and genuine than May, which he did by a country mile in my view, then the votes by gender are even more worrying for Labour.

Corbyn and the Labour Party still have some way to go although without any doubt the fact Corbyn and Corbyn-led Labour was portrayed ahead of and at the start of the general election as the bogey man and a radical 1970’s socialist dinosaur who wore socks with his sandals (blah, blah, blah) is an obvious factor and shows just how staggeringly well Corbyn Labour achieved.

The betting on the next general election sees all bookmakers have 2017 as the clear favourite and also sees Jeremy Corbyn at 11/10 to be the next Prime Minister after Theresa May with Boris Johnson at 5/2 so if you ever want an idea of just how tenuous Theresa May’s grip on the Prime Ministership is and just how strong the chances of Jeremy Corbyn being the next PM and also how fantastically well he did in the recent general election then there is your proof!

The above also means that dismissing Corbyn as only attracting 40% of the vote through the naivety of youth is simply and patently false.  We are likely to be continually fed this mistruth between now and the next general election as it is in the Tories interest and the right-wing biased media interest for obvious reasons and the old guard political commentariat interest to excuse their abject out-of-touch self-perceived omniscience that saw so many ‘smacked-arse’ faces when the exit polls were announced on June 8th at 10pm!

There are dozens of other nuanced aspects of the general election voting patterns by region and by socio-economic grouping and other factors that will be pored over by nerds and geeks by and large. Yet in summary by all means still be surprised by the result as almost everyone is, but do not be misled by its only the naivety of youth or similar claptrap (or should I say tripe!) that we are all being fed!

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Bookies odds through http://www.oddschecker.com

 

 

 

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9 thoughts on “GE Voting the facts and Corbyn is the bookies favourite as the next PM!

  1. The main reason labour did well is very simple they offered hope whereas the conservatives offered the same old austerity and this time they picked on the elderly and in keeping what they do best the vulnerable
    and in reality that’s the bottom line

    brexit will have only played a small part as the public now realize that a soft brexit is best which was more In tune with what labour has in mind

    the next election will be even tighter and I believe Boris Johnson will fight that one but he to will not be able to offer anything as In keeping with conservative values will offer nothing other then austerity

  2. I should add that some conservative constituencies will always vote tory especially the likes of Tatton/ maidenhead/ etc where there are not many young voters and would vote for anyone blue irrespective of their views

  3. I was impressed with Corbyn and voted labour, we have a great MP and wanted to keep him, all this despite my advanced years (68!) Hope that Jeremy Corbyn becomes PM in the not too distant future.

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